diff --git a/scripts/guard-mutations.mjs b/scripts/guard-mutations.mjs
index 8991276a..7f436e94 100644
--- a/scripts/guard-mutations.mjs
+++ b/scripts/guard-mutations.mjs
@@ -11,6 +11,13 @@ import { copyFileSync, existsSync, mkdtempSync, readFileSync, rmSync, writeFileS
 import { spawnSync } from "node:child_process";
 import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
 import { dirname, isAbsolute, relative, resolve } from "node:path";
+import {
+  ALL_OUTCOMES,
+  BASELINE_OUTCOMES,
+  REGISTRATION_DEFECTS,
+  classifyRun,
+  severestOutcome,
+} from "./guard-outcomes.mjs";
 
 const ROOT = resolve(dirname(new URL(import.meta.url).pathname), "..");
 const REGISTRY_PATH = resolve(ROOT, "bench/cdeb/guards/registry.json");
@@ -75,7 +82,7 @@ const readRegistry = () => {
   });
 };
 
-const OUTCOMES = new Set(["bound", "inert", "unavailable", "uncovered"]);
+const OUTCOMES = BASELINE_OUTCOMES;
 
 const readBaseline = () => {
   const parsed = JSON.parse(readFileSync(BASELINE_PATH, "utf8"));
@@ -131,18 +138,59 @@ const applyMutation = (mutation) => {
   }
 };
 
-const runTest = (testFile, testName) =>
-  spawnSync("npx", ["vitest", "run", testFile, "-t", testName], {
-    cwd: ROOT,
-    encoding: "utf8",
-    maxBuffer: 16 * 1024 * 1024,
-  });
+let runCounter = 0;
+
+// Returns how many tests actually executed, not just the exit code. `vitest run
+// -t <name>` exits 0 when the name matches nothing -- it skips the whole file and
+// reports success -- so the exit code alone cannot tell a mutation nothing
+// reacted to from a test name that no longer resolves. Renaming a test is
+// routine, and under the old reading that silently downgraded its guard.
+const runTest = (testFile, testName) => {
+  runCounter += 1;
+  const outputFile = resolve(backupRoot, `vitest-${String(runCounter)}.json`);
+  const args = ["vitest", "run", testFile, "--reporter=json", `--outputFile=${outputFile}`];
+  if (testName !== null) args.push("-t", testName);
+  const spawned = spawnSync("npx", args, { cwd: ROOT, encoding: "utf8", maxBuffer: 16 * 1024 * 1024 });
+  if (spawned.error !== undefined) return { started: false, reason: spawned.error.message };
+  if (!existsSync(outputFile)) {
+    return { started: false, reason: `vitest exited ${String(spawned.status)} without writing a report` };
+  }
+  let report;
+  try {
+    report = JSON.parse(readFileSync(outputFile, "utf8"));
+  } catch (error) {
+    return { started: false, reason: `vitest report was not readable JSON: ${error instanceof Error ? error.message : String(error)}` };
+  }
+  const assertions = Array.isArray(report.testResults)
+    ? report.testResults.flatMap((file) => (Array.isArray(file.assertionResults) ? file.assertionResults : []))
+    : [];
+  const executed = assertions.filter((assertion) => assertion.status !== "skipped" && assertion.status !== "pending");
+  const failed = executed.filter((assertion) => assertion.status === "failed");
+  return {
+    started: true,
+    executed: executed.length,
+    failed: failed.length,
+    failedNames: failed.map((assertion) => assertion.fullName ?? assertion.title ?? "(unnamed test)"),
+  };
+};
+
+const describe = (outcome, mutation, property, named, filtered, whole) => {
+  if (outcome === "unavailable") {
+    return `${mutation.id}: Vitest could not start — ${filtered.reason}; ${mutation.why}`;
+  }
+  if (outcome === "unresolved") {
+    return `${mutation.id}: no test in ${property.testFile} matches "${named}", so nothing was run; the registration names a test that does not exist`;
+  }
+  if (outcome === "bound") return `${mutation.id}: mutation applied, test failed — ${mutation.why}`;
+  if (outcome === "misfiled") {
+    return `${mutation.id}: "${named}" passed, but the mutation failed ${whole.failedNames.join(", ")}; register it against the test that actually fails`;
+  }
+  return `${mutation.id}: mutation applied, no test in ${property.testFile} failed — ${mutation.why}`;
+};
 
 const measurements = [];
 let total = 0;
-let boundControls = 0;
-let inertControls = 0;
-let unavailableControls = 0;
+const controlTally = new Map(ALL_OUTCOMES.map((outcome) => [outcome, 0]));
 
 try {
   for (const property of readRegistry()) {
@@ -156,39 +204,34 @@ try {
     }
     const controlOutcomes = [];
     const details = [];
+    const record = (outcome, detail) => {
+      controlTally.set(outcome, controlTally.get(outcome) + 1);
+      controlOutcomes.push(outcome);
+      details.push(detail);
+    };
     for (const mutation of property.mutations) {
       total += 1;
       const applied = applyMutation(mutation);
       if (!applied.applied) {
-        unavailableControls += 1;
-        controlOutcomes.push("unavailable");
-        details.push(`${mutation.id}: mutation could not be applied — ${applied.reason}; ${mutation.why}`);
+        record("unavailable", `${mutation.id}: mutation could not be applied — ${applied.reason}; ${mutation.why}`);
         continue;
       }
       try {
-        const result = runTest(property.testFile, mutation.testName ?? property.testName);
-        if (result.error !== undefined) {
-          unavailableControls += 1;
-          controlOutcomes.push("unavailable");
-          details.push(`${mutation.id}: Vitest could not start — ${result.error.message}; ${mutation.why}`);
-        } else if (result.status !== 0) {
-          boundControls += 1;
-          controlOutcomes.push("bound");
-          details.push(`${mutation.id}: mutation applied, test failed — ${mutation.why}`);
-        } else {
-          inertControls += 1;
-          controlOutcomes.push("inert");
-          details.push(`${mutation.id}: mutation applied, test passed — ${mutation.why}`);
-        }
+        const named = mutation.testName ?? property.testName;
+        const filtered = runTest(property.testFile, named);
+        // The unfiltered run is only needed to tell misfiled from inert, and the
+        // clean tree is green, so a failure in it is caused by the mutation.
+        const whole =
+          filtered.started && filtered.executed > 0 && filtered.failed === 0
+            ? runTest(property.testFile, null)
+            : undefined;
+        const outcome = classifyRun(filtered, whole);
+        record(outcome, describe(outcome, mutation, property, named, filtered, whole));
       } finally {
         restoreActive();
       }
     }
-    const outcome = controlOutcomes.includes("unavailable")
-      ? "unavailable"
-      : controlOutcomes.includes("inert")
-        ? "inert"
-        : "bound";
+    const outcome = severestOutcome(controlOutcomes);
     measurements.push({ ...property, outcome, detail: details.join("; ") });
   }
 } finally {
@@ -197,24 +240,37 @@ try {
 }
 
 const baseline = readBaseline();
-const byOutcome = new Map([...OUTCOMES].map((outcome) => [outcome, []]));
+const byOutcome = new Map(ALL_OUTCOMES.map((outcome) => [outcome, []]));
 for (const measurement of measurements) byOutcome.get(measurement.outcome).push(measurement);
 
 process.stdout.write("OUTCOME TABLE:\n");
-for (const outcome of ["bound", "inert", "unavailable", "uncovered"]) {
+for (const outcome of ["bound", "misfiled", "unresolved", "inert", "unavailable", "uncovered"]) {
   const rows = byOutcome.get(outcome);
   process.stdout.write(`${outcome.toUpperCase()} (${String(rows.length)}):\n`);
   for (const row of rows) {
-    const baselineReason = baseline.get(row.guardId)?.reason;
+    // A registration defect has no legitimate baseline entry, so its own detail
+    // is the only account of it; for the recorded gaps the baseline reason is
+    // the considered one and supersedes the generated line.
+    const baselineReason = REGISTRATION_DEFECTS.has(outcome) ? undefined : baseline.get(row.guardId)?.reason;
     const suffix = baselineReason === undefined ? row.detail : baselineReason;
     process.stdout.write(`  ${row.guardId}: ${row.claim} — ${suffix}\n`);
   }
 }
-process.stdout.write(`CONTROL SUMMARY: ${String(boundControls)} bound, ${String(inertControls)} inert, ${String(unavailableControls)} unavailable, ${String(byOutcome.get("uncovered").length)} uncovered, ${String(total)} mutations run\n`);
+const tallyText = ["bound", "misfiled", "unresolved", "inert", "unavailable"]
+  .map((outcome) => `${String(controlTally.get(outcome))} ${outcome}`)
+  .join(", ");
+process.stdout.write(`CONTROL SUMMARY: ${tallyText}, ${String(byOutcome.get("uncovered").length)} uncovered, ${String(total)} mutations run\n`);
 
 const failures = [];
 const measuredIds = new Set(measurements.map((measurement) => measurement.guardId));
 for (const measurement of measurements) {
+  // A registration defect fails on sight and is never reconciled against the
+  // baseline. Recording one would ratchet in a guard whose stated coverage
+  // cannot be checked -- exactly the state the baseline exists to make visible.
+  if (REGISTRATION_DEFECTS.has(measurement.outcome)) {
+    failures.push(`REGISTRATION DEFECT: ${measurement.guardId}: ${measurement.detail}`);
+    continue;
+  }
   const expected = baseline.get(measurement.guardId);
   if (expected === undefined) {
     if (measurement.outcome === "uncovered") {
diff --git a/scripts/guard-outcomes.mjs b/scripts/guard-outcomes.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..26829878
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/guard-outcomes.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+/**
+ * How a mutation run is read, kept apart from the runner that produces it.
+ *
+ * The ratchet spawns one Vitest process per mutation, so the only way to test
+ * its reading inside the suite is to separate the reading from the running.
+ * Everything here is pure.
+ */
+
+// bound, inert, unavailable and uncovered are states a baseline may record: they
+// describe how far coverage reaches, and a known gap can be carried.
+export const BASELINE_OUTCOMES = new Set(["bound", "inert", "unavailable", "uncovered"]);
+
+// These two are not gaps, they are broken registrations, so the baseline may not
+// hold them and measuring one always fails.
+export const REGISTRATION_DEFECTS = new Set(["misfiled", "unresolved"]);
+
+export const ALL_OUTCOMES = [...BASELINE_OUTCOMES, ...REGISTRATION_DEFECTS];
+
+// Worst first. unresolved leads because nothing was measured at all, so the
+// property is neither shown defended nor shown undefended. inert outranks
+// misfiled because inert means no test anywhere reacted, whereas misfiled means
+// the property is defended and only the name recorded against it is wrong.
+export const OUTCOME_SEVERITY = ["unresolved", "unavailable", "inert", "misfiled", "bound"];
+
+/**
+ * Read one mutation from its runs.
+ *
+ * `named` is the run filtered to the registered test name; `whole` is the same
+ * file unfiltered and is only consulted when the named test survived.
+ *
+ * The `executed === 0` branch is the one that matters. `vitest run -t <name>`
+ * exits 0 when the name matches nothing -- it skips the whole file and reports
+ * success -- so an exit code alone cannot separate a mutation nothing reacted to
+ * from a test name that no longer resolves. Renaming a test is routine, and
+ * under that reading its guard degrades to inert without anything saying so.
+ */
+export const classifyRun = (named, whole) => {
+  if (!named.started) return "unavailable";
+  if (named.executed === 0) return "unresolved";
+  if (named.failed > 0) return "bound";
+  // The named test survived. Before calling the property undefended, ask whether
+  // anything else in the file reacted: a mutation registered against the wrong
+  // test looks identical to one nothing catches, and only the second is a
+  // coverage gap.
+  if (whole !== undefined && whole.started && whole.failed > 0) return "misfiled";
+  return "inert";
+};
+
+/** A property is represented by the worst outcome among its mutations. */
+export const severestOutcome = (outcomes) =>
+  OUTCOME_SEVERITY.find((candidate) => outcomes.includes(candidate)) ?? "bound";
diff --git a/test/guard-ratchet-outcomes.test.ts b/test/guard-ratchet-outcomes.test.ts
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..46766222
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/guard-ratchet-outcomes.test.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
+
+import {
+  ALL_OUTCOMES,
+  BASELINE_OUTCOMES,
+  OUTCOME_SEVERITY,
+  REGISTRATION_DEFECTS,
+  classifyRun,
+  severestOutcome,
+  // @ts-expect-error -- the ratchet and its helpers are plain ESM, not typed sources
+} from "../scripts/guard-outcomes.mjs";
+
+const ran = (failed: number) => ({ started: true, executed: 1, failed, failedNames: [] as string[] });
+const failing = (...names: string[]) => ({ started: true, executed: names.length, failed: names.length, failedNames: names });
+const nothingMatched = { started: true, executed: 0, failed: 0, failedNames: [] as string[] };
+const crashed = { started: false, reason: "vitest exited 1 without writing a report" };
+
+describe("how the mutation ratchet reads a run", () => {
+  it("calls a mutation bound when the registered test fails", () => {
+    expect(classifyRun(ran(1), undefined)).toBe("bound");
+  });
+
+  it("calls a mutation inert when the registered test and every other test survive", () => {
+    expect(classifyRun(ran(0), ran(0))).toBe("inert");
+  });
+
+  it("does not call a mutation inert when a test other than the registered one fails", () => {
+    // The failure this exists to stop: a real mutation and a real test, paired
+    // wrongly. Reading it as inert reports the property undefended when it is
+    // defended, and points the repair at the mutation instead of the name.
+    expect(classifyRun(ran(0), failing("holds the floors at the values the preregistration fixed"))).toBe("misfiled");
+  });
+
+  it("does not call a mutation inert when the registered name matches no test", () => {
+    // `vitest run -t <name>` skips the whole file and exits 0 when nothing
+    // matches, so an exit code alone reads a renamed test as a mutation nothing
+    // reacted to. Renaming a test is routine; its guard must not go quiet.
+    expect(classifyRun(nothingMatched, undefined)).toBe("unresolved");
+  });
+
+  it("does not consult the unfiltered run before the registered name has resolved", () => {
+    // Whatever else is failing, an unresolved name was not measured, so the
+    // unfiltered run cannot upgrade it to a statement about coverage.
+    expect(classifyRun(nothingMatched, failing("some other test"))).toBe("unresolved");
+  });
+
+  it("reports a run that never started as unavailable rather than as a gap", () => {
+    expect(classifyRun(crashed, undefined)).toBe("unavailable");
+  });
+});
+
+describe("which outcome represents a property", () => {
+  it("takes the worst outcome among a property's mutations", () => {
+    expect(severestOutcome(["bound", "inert", "bound"])).toBe("inert");
+    expect(severestOutcome(["bound", "misfiled"])).toBe("misfiled");
+    expect(severestOutcome(["inert", "unresolved"])).toBe("unresolved");
+  });
+
+  it("ranks every outcome it can be handed", () => {
+    for (const outcome of ALL_OUTCOMES.filter((name: string) => name !== "uncovered")) {
+      expect(OUTCOME_SEVERITY).toContain(outcome);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("reports bound only when nothing worse was measured", () => {
+    expect(severestOutcome(["bound", "bound"])).toBe("bound");
+    expect(severestOutcome([])).toBe("bound");
+  });
+});
+
+describe("what a baseline may record", () => {
+  it("refuses to treat a broken registration as a carryable gap", () => {
+    // bound/inert/unavailable/uncovered say how far coverage reaches and can be
+    // carried with a reason. misfiled and unresolved say the registration itself
+    // is wrong, and recording one would ratchet in a guard whose stated coverage
+    // cannot be checked.
+    for (const defect of REGISTRATION_DEFECTS) {
+      expect(BASELINE_OUTCOMES.has(defect)).toBe(false);
+    }
+  });
+
+  it("keeps the two sets disjoint and complete", () => {
+    expect(ALL_OUTCOMES.length).toBe(BASELINE_OUTCOMES.size + REGISTRATION_DEFECTS.size);
+    expect(new Set(ALL_OUTCOMES).size).toBe(ALL_OUTCOMES.length);
+  });
+});