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Set Marriage Allowance take-up rate to HMRC outturn (~50%) #368

@vahid-ahmadi

Description

@vahid-ahmadi

Context

policyengine_uk_data/parameters/take_up/marriage_allowance.yaml is set to a placeholder 1.0 (100% take-up). HMRC outturn shows ~2.1m claimants of ~4.2m eligible couples, i.e. roughly 50% take-up. The model overstates Marriage Allowance cost by ~£500m/year as a result.

This file is the load-bearing one: datasets/frs.py reads it via load_take_up_rate("marriage_allowance", year) to draw would_claim_marriage_allowance stochastically per person at FRS build time.

Ask

Update the parameter to 0.5 with the HMRC reference. PR incoming.

Companion change

The matching documentation parameter in policyengine-uk is being updated in PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#1636 — these two need to stay in sync (or eventually be deduplicated by having uk-data read from the policyengine-uk parameter).

Source issue

Originally raised in PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#623.

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