Add LA-level household land value targets and calibrate on them

changelog.d/370.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Add LA-level household land value calibration targets for all 360 UK local authorities, generalising the regional method to LA granularity using HM Land Registry UK HPI and PolicyEngine's LA household counts.

policyengine_uk_data/datasets/local_areas/local_authorities/loss.py

@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@
 - ONS income: ONS small area income estimates
 - Tenure: English Housing Survey
 - Private rent: VOA/ONS private rental market statistics
+- Household land value: ONS National Balance Sheet × LA property-wealth share
 """
 
 from policyengine_uk import Microsimulation
@@ -38,6 +39,8 @@
     load_tenure_data,
     load_private_rents,
 )
+from policyengine_uk_data.targets.sources._land import HOUSEHOLD_LAND_VALUES
+from policyengine_uk_data.targets.sources.la_land import _compute_la_targets
 
 
 def create_local_authority_target_matrix(
@@ -252,6 +255,18 @@ def create_local_authority_target_matrix(
         national_rent * la_household_share,
     )
 
+    # ── Household land value (LA targets) ──────────────────────────
+    # Per-LA target = LA's share of national property wealth × ONS
+    # household-land series for the calibration year. Source:
+    # policyengine_uk_data/targets/sources/la_land.py.
+    year = int(time_period)
+    land_year = year if year in HOUSEHOLD_LAND_VALUES else max(HOUSEHOLD_LAND_VALUES)
+    la_land_by_code = {
+        code: values[land_year] for code, values in _compute_la_targets().items()
+    }
+    matrix["ons/household_land_value"] = sim.calculate("household_land_value").values
+    y["ons/household_land_value"] = la_codes["code"].map(la_land_by_code).values
+
     # ── Country mask ───────────────────────────────────────────────
     country_mask = create_country_mask(
         household_countries=sim.calculate("country").values,

policyengine_uk_data/storage/la_land_values.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,361 @@
+code,name,households,avg_house_price
+E06000001,Hartlepool,42687,132463
+E06000002,Middlesbrough,62873,141270
+E06000003,Redcar and Cleveland,64597,146735
+E06000004,Stockton-on-Tees,88187,170575
+E06000005,Darlington,50525,159542
+E06000006,Halton,58738,189414
+E06000007,Warrington,96224,251903
+E06000008,Blackburn with Darwen,61298,162893
+E06000009,Blackpool,69328,136485
+E06000010,"Kingston upon Hull, City of",119535,131323
+E06000011,East Riding of Yorkshire,160848,221028
+E06000012,North East Lincolnshire,72731,148043
+E06000013,North Lincolnshire,77080,180202
+E06000014,York,90598,306571
+E06000015,Derby,110196,205530
+E06000016,Leicester,134204,226491
+E06000017,Rutland,18295,318903
+E06000018,Nottingham,131657,193888
+E06000019,"Herefordshire, County of",86625,287302
+E06000020,Telford and Wrekin,79145,215752
+E06000021,Stoke-on-Trent,115950,147831
+E06000022,Bath and North East Somerset,84855,407049
+E06000023,"Bristol, City of",205211,353265
+E06000024,North Somerset,102261,312318
+E06000025,South Gloucestershire,129657,332736
+E06000026,Plymouth,126166,218085
+E06000027,Torbay,66499,232041
+E06000030,Swindon,100125,260905
+E06000031,Peterborough,88023,231757
+E06000032,Luton,84690,281149
+E06000033,Southend-on-Sea,80611,333356
+E06000034,Thurrock,70478,325936
+E06000035,Medway,118085,298520
+E06000036,Bracknell Forest,52392,394751
+E06000037,West Berkshire,70169,400144
+E06000038,Reading,70322,354805
+E06000039,Slough,54550,337206
+E06000040,Windsor and Maidenhead,64836,572852
+E06000041,Wokingham,72272,503052
+E06000042,Milton Keynes,119789,328697
+E06000043,Brighton and Hove,126374,410203
+E06000044,Portsmouth,93797,249460
+E06000045,Southampton,107827,233920
+E06000046,Isle of Wight,71945,247936
+E06000047,County Durham,253106,143291
+E06000049,Cheshire East,185025,306039
+E06000050,Cheshire West and Chester,162209,265955
+E06000051,Shropshire,146609,281161
+E06000052,Cornwall,265515,277318
+E06000053,Isles of Scilly,1115,308582
+E06000054,Wiltshire,230273,332483
+E06000055,Bedford,82624,331140
+E06000056,Central Bedfordshire,129846,358488
+E06000057,Northumberland,154547,214989
+E06000058,"Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole",180181,309673
+E06000059,Dorset,180376,332378
+E06000060,Buckinghamshire,237680,487653
+E06000061,North Northamptonshire,164829,258515
+E06000062,West Northamptonshire,180295,294010
+E06000063,Cumberland,91136,174281
+E06000064,Westmorland and Furness,94053,227777
+E06000065,North Yorkshire,127165,272111
+E06000066,Somerset,107037,278440
+E07000008,Cambridge,55946,485985
+E07000009,East Cambridgeshire,39423,357866
+E07000010,Fenland,46560,234696
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+E07000012,South Cambridgeshire,71683,433729
+E07000032,Amber Valley,59550,234786
+E07000033,Bolsover,37016,185199
+E07000034,Chesterfield,49895,200389
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+E07000040,East Devon,69365,343715
+E07000041,Exeter,54901,283194
+E07000042,Mid Devon,37599,299716
+E07000043,North Devon,44797,286805
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+E07000045,Teignbridge,62939,297853
+E07000046,Torridge,31384,269713
+E07000047,West Devon,25342,308836
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+E07000084,Basingstoke and Deane,82589,373985
+E07000085,East Hampshire,55752,440091
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+E07000087,Fareham,52074,332945
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+E07000111,Sevenoaks,52383,535114
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+E07000113,Swale,63290,289925
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+E07000118,Chorley,52608,208587
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+E07000121,Lancaster,63938,200827
+E07000122,Pendle,39879,146756
+E07000123,Preston,63040,189448
+E07000124,Ribble Valley,28002,280677
+E07000125,Rossendale,31819,197028
+E07000126,South Ribble,51099,207382
+E07000127,West Lancashire,51070,229049
+E07000128,Wyre,53177,193044
+E07000129,Blaby,45683,295289
+E07000130,Charnwood,75849,275442
+E07000131,Harborough,42531,344277
+E07000132,Hinckley and Bosworth,52155,261427
+E07000133,Melton,23700,290884
+E07000134,North West Leicestershire,46330,287928
+E07000135,Oadby and Wigston,23560,271073
+E07000136,Boston,30365,192397
+E07000137,East Lindsey,67863,218674
+E07000138,Lincoln,44186,186704
+E07000139,North Kesteven,53366,244502
+E07000140,South Holland,42889,227339
+E07000141,South Kesteven,66371,255822
+E07000142,West Lindsey,44831,212770
+E07000143,Breckland,63896,277510
+E07000144,Broadland,59286,315312
+E07000145,Great Yarmouth,46015,208770
+E07000146,King's Lynn and West Norfolk,72550,268435
+E07000147,North Norfolk,51309,288661
+E07000148,Norwich,66263,222723
+E07000149,South Norfolk,64294,312743
+E07000170,Ashfield,56709,190280
+E07000171,Bassetlaw,54577,207390
+E07000172,Broxtowe,51864,256619
+E07000173,Gedling,55718,249519
+E07000174,Mansfield,50295,190540
+E07000175,Newark and Sherwood,58096,240202
+E07000176,Rushcliffe,53065,333758
+E07000177,Cherwell,71480,355186
+E07000178,Oxford,58982,480531
+E07000179,South Oxfordshire,64446,462111
+E07000180,Vale of White Horse,62792,411832
+E07000181,West Oxfordshire,51488,422389
+E07000192,Cannock Chase,45724,234415
+E07000193,East Staffordshire,54623,223975
+E07000194,Lichfield,50572,326691
+E07000195,Newcastle-under-Lyme,57040,202139
+E07000196,South Staffordshire,50237,295861
+E07000197,Stafford,66115,265685
+E07000198,Staffordshire Moorlands,45583,216108
+E07000199,Tamworth,34257,233451
+E07000200,Babergh,42926,331953
+E07000202,Ipswich,64321,221494
+E07000203,Mid Suffolk,49895,319139
+E07000207,Elmbridge,61225,743009
+E07000208,Epsom and Ewell,33649,545227
+E07000209,Guildford,60529,523409
+E07000210,Mole Valley,40275,557926
+E07000211,Reigate and Banstead,64563,466628
+E07000212,Runnymede,36674,480402
+E07000213,Spelthorne,46050,440782
+E07000214,Surrey Heath,38463,462511
+E07000215,Tandridge,37661,495400
+E07000216,Waverley,55267,555732
+E07000217,Woking,43207,433269
+E07000218,North Warwickshire,29186,269540
+E07000219,Nuneaton and Bedworth,59777,234032
+E07000220,Rugby,49396,275985
+E07000221,Stratford-on-Avon,62587,390081
+E07000222,Warwick,66686,366063
+E07000223,Adur,29062,370708
+E07000224,Arun,76206,325042
+E07000225,Chichester,57159,441151
+E07000226,Crawley,47401,336354
+E07000227,Horsham,64939,441285
+E07000228,Mid Sussex,66723,436743
+E07000229,Worthing,53504,308125
+E07000234,Bromsgrove,43061,333847
+E07000235,Malvern Hills,36187,338287
+E07000236,Redditch,38123,248001
+E07000237,Worcester,47138,249218
+E07000238,Wychavon,61914,333519
+E07000239,Wyre Forest,47963,234081
+E07000240,St Albans,61308,609646
+E07000241,Welwyn Hatfield,48609,443795
+E07000242,East Hertfordshire,64958,460270
+E07000243,Stevenage,38761,323392
+E07000244,East Suffolk,118154,283660
+E07000245,West Suffolk,81715,295650
+E08000001,Bolton,123006,200491
+E08000002,Bury,83538,237721
+E08000003,Manchester,230104,257630
+E08000004,Oldham,96814,213245
+E08000005,Rochdale,93421,209799
+E08000006,Salford,120347,226427
+E08000007,Stockport,134807,306235
+E08000008,Tameside,106293,211680
+E08000009,Trafford,99920,378514
+E08000010,Wigan,150180,191180
+E08000011,Knowsley,68335,190405
+E08000012,Liverpool,215816,184804
+E08000013,St. Helens,86307,179209
+E08000014,Sefton,130413,220702
+E08000015,Wirral,154379,218516
+E08000016,Barnsley,111728,172458
+E08000017,Doncaster,140435,173424
+E08000018,Rotherham,120506,191161
+E08000019,Sheffield,245451,220445
+E08000021,Newcastle upon Tyne,127262,207936
+E08000022,North Tyneside,100515,202840
+E08000023,South Tyneside,71355,165647
+E08000024,Sunderland,129173,146527
+E08000025,Birmingham,443632,232844
+E08000026,Coventry,141539,226361
+E08000027,Dudley,146542,227378
+E08000028,Sandwell,135966,200069
+E08000029,Solihull,93737,328744
+E08000030,Walsall,121137,215676
+E08000031,Wolverhampton,106933,213273
+E08000032,Bradford,218386,189396
+E08000033,Calderdale,95154,186573
+E08000034,Kirklees,185181,205944
+E08000035,Leeds,378060,246293
+E08000036,Wakefield,159785,199323
+E08000037,Gateshead,93642,151480
+E09000001,City of London,5133,740433
+E09000002,Barking and Dagenham,76891,353512
+E09000003,Barnet,156752,594093
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+E09000022,Lambeth,138311,538500
+E09000023,Lewisham,127327,493356
+E09000024,Merton,83414,601814
+E09000025,Newham,122280,405619
+E09000026,Redbridge,112886,495269
+E09000027,Richmond upon Thames,84981,777164
+E09000028,Southwark,134900,589636
+E09000029,Sutton,86112,453058
+E09000030,Tower Hamlets,123601,463527
+E09000031,Waltham Forest,109286,525738
+E09000032,Wandsworth,141843,689285
+E09000033,Westminster,100112,880389
+N09000001,Antrim and Newtownabbey,83744,197918
+N09000002,"Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon",87066,179907
+N09000003,Belfast,87441,178459
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+N09000005,Derry City and Strabane,86420,177589
+N09000006,Fermanagh and Omagh,87392,194970
+N09000007,Lisburn and Castlereagh,89622,231628
+N09000008,Mid and East Antrim,84384,173261
+N09000009,Mid Ulster,85900,189185
+N09000010,"Newry, Mourne and Down",88089,218595
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+S12000013,Na h-Eileanan Siar,86183,139148
+S12000014,Falkirk,86048,171236
+S12000017,Highland,90706,216711
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+S12000029,South Lanarkshire,95010,186880
+S12000030,Stirling,84552,228054
+S12000033,Aberdeen City,86478,133119
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+S12000036,City of Edinburgh,112532,293243
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+S12000041,Angus,84966,174680
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