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Fill 2020 and 2021 carbon intensities by interpolation (#396) #1639

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Merged
MaxGhenis merged 1 commit into from
Apr 20, 2026
Merged

Fill 2020 and 2021 carbon intensities by interpolation (#396) #1639

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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions changelog.d/396.md
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- Fill in 2020 and 2021 carbon intensity values for all 12 consumption categories by linear interpolation between the existing DEFRA-sourced 2019 and 2022 anchors, replacing the prior `backdate_parameters` artifact that held values flat at 2019 across the gap.
26 changes: 25 additions & 1 deletion policyengine_uk/parameters/household/consumption/carbon/intensity.yaml
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description: Carbon intensity by consumption type (where microsimulation data is not available)
description: Carbon intensity by consumption type (where microsimulation data is not available). 2019 and 2022 values are sourced from the DEFRA UK Carbon Footprint dataset; 2020 and 2021 are linear-interpolated between those two points (DEFRA publishes the underlying COICOP figures, but we lack the LCFS-weighted aggregation methodology used to produce the 2-digit values for 2019 and 2022). Years after 2022 are forward-projected at -4.9%/year via `gov.economic_assumptions.indices.carbon_intensity`.
alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption:
2019-01-01: 7.7e-05
2020-01-01: 7.092333e-05
2021-01-01: 6.484667e-05
2022-01-01: 0.00005877
clothing_and_footwear_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000262
2020-01-01: 0.00025086
2021-01-01: 0.00023972
2022-01-01: 0.00022858
communication_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000404
2020-01-01: 0.00039425
2021-01-01: 0.00038449
2022-01-01: 0.00037474
education_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000241
2020-01-01: 0.00028874
2021-01-01: 0.00033648
2022-01-01: 0.00038422
food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000689
2020-01-01: 0.00062852
2021-01-01: 0.00056804
2022-01-01: 0.00050756
health_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000656
2020-01-01: 0.00065116
2021-01-01: 0.00064633
2022-01-01: 0.00064149
household_furnishings_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000212
2020-01-01: 0.00021016
2021-01-01: 0.00020833
2022-01-01: 0.00020649
housing_water_and_electricity_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.0012
2020-01-01: 0.00111799
2021-01-01: 0.00103598
2022-01-01: 0.00095397
miscellaneous_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000203
2020-01-01: 0.00020843
2021-01-01: 0.00021385
2022-01-01: 0.00021928
recreation_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000185
2020-01-01: 0.00018347
2021-01-01: 0.00018193
2022-01-01: 0.0001804
restaurants_and_hotels_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.000311
2020-01-01: 0.00030431
2021-01-01: 0.00029761
2022-01-01: 0.00029092
transport_consumption:
2019-01-01: 0.00107
2020-01-01: 0.00107055
2021-01-01: 0.00107109
2022-01-01: 0.00107164
metadata:
unit: tonnes per gbp
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