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Improve rent uprating by tenure#1646

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MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit intomainfrom
codex/improve-rent-uprating-by-tenure
Draft

Improve rent uprating by tenure#1646
MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit intomainfrom
codex/improve-rent-uprating-by-tenure

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Summary

  • uprate private rents directly from ONS private rental price growth by region instead of backing them out from aggregate OBR rent
  • update social rent growth to observed RSH stock-average growth through 2025, then the England policy cap forecast
  • add a regression test covering the tenure-specific 2025 rent uprating path

Validation

  • uv run pytest policyengine_uk/tests/test_rent_uprating.py -q
  • uv run pytest policyengine_uk/tests/test_fiscal_year_parameters.py -q

Notes

  • private rent forecasts after observed ONS data use the March 2026 OBR aggregate rent forecast as the documented fallback
  • uv.lock is intentionally excluded from this PR

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