Reconcile SS sub-components after PUF imputation#552
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When PUF imputation replaces social_security values, the sub-components (retirement, disability, survivors, dependents) were left unchanged, creating a mismatch. This caused a base-year discontinuity where projected years had ~3x more SS recipients than the base year, producing artificial 9-point Gini swings. The new reconcile_ss_subcomponents() function rescales sub-components proportionally after PUF imputation. New recipients (CPS had zero SS but PUF imputed positive) default to retirement. Fixes #551 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
New PUF recipients (CPS had zero SS) now get assigned based on age: >= 62 -> retirement, < 62 -> disability. Matches the CPS fallback logic. Falls back to retirement if age is unavailable. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Instead of the simple age >= 62 heuristic, train a QRF on CPS records (where the reason-code split is known) to predict shares for new PUF recipients. Uses age, gender, marital status, and other demographics. Falls back to age heuristic when microimpute is unavailable or training data is insufficient (< 100 records). 14 tests covering: - Proportional rescaling (existing recipients) - Age heuristic fallback (4 tests) - QRF share prediction (4 tests including sum-to-one and elderly-predicted-as-retirement) - Edge cases (zero imputation, missing subs, no SS) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
CPS-PUF link is statistical (not identity-based), so the paired CPS record's sub-component split is just one noisy draw. A QRF trained on all CPS SS recipients gives a better expected prediction. Also removes unnecessary try/except ImportError guard for microimpute. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Fixes CI failure: DE TANF deficit_rate parameter started at 2024-10-01 in 1.570.7, causing ParameterNotFoundError for Jan 2024 simulations. Fixed in newer releases (start date corrected to 2011-10-01). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
social_securityvalues, rescales sub-components (social_security_retirement,social_security_disability,social_security_survivors,social_security_dependents) proportionally so they sum to the new totalProblem
PUF imputation overwrites
social_securitybut not its sub-components. When policyengine-us crosses the base year boundary,social_securityswitches from the PUF-imputed input (2,281 nonzero records) to the formula path (sum of CPS-derived sub-components = 7,197 nonzero records), creating ~3x more SS recipients and artificial 9-point Gini swings.Test plan
Fixes #551
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