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polymarket-quant-bots

Automated trading bots targeting pricing inefficiencies on Polymarket.

Bots

  1. Live Sports Result Arbitrage Bot sports-bot.js

Detects situations where game results are known before prediction market prices update. Data sources:

  • ESPN live score API
  • API-Football
  • TheSportsDB
  • Polymarket markets API

Strategy:

  • Map active Polymarket sports markets to real fixtures
  • Monitor live scores every ~15 seconds
  • When outcomes become highly probable (e.g. 2-0 lead in 80th minute or full-time result)
  • Compare fair win probability vs market price
  • Buy underpriced outcome before market reprices

Edge source:

  • Information latency between sports data feeds and market pricing.
  1. Crypto Oracle Lag + Liquidation Cascade Bot candle-bot.js

Trades BTC / ETH / SOL short-term prediction markets by exploiting price feed delays.

Strategy components. Oracle Lag:

  • Detects when Binance spot price moves but Polymarket oracle hasn't updated
  • Buys correct direction before the oracle syncs. Liquidation Cascade Detection:
  • Streams Binance futures forced liquidations via WebSocket
  • Large liquidation bursts often produce continued momentum
  • Uses liquidation size thresholds to classify signal strength.

Signal tiers: Tier 1: Oracle lag + liquidation cascade Tier 2: Oracle lag only Tier 3: Large liquidation burst with neutral market price

  1. Season Probability Model Bot season-bot.js

Trades season-long sports markets where probabilities update slowly.

Example markets:

  • League winner
  • Top 4 finish
  • Relegation

Model Monte Carlo simulation using:

  • Current points
  • Games played
  • Remaining schedule
  • Form The bot recalculates title or qualification probabilities after each matchday and compares them to market prices.

Edge source Markets often lag recalculation of season probabilities after major results.

File Strategy
candle-bot.js Crypto oracle lag + Binance liquidation cascade detection
season-bot.js Monte Carlo season-probability model vs lagging market prices
weather-bot.js Live meteorological data vs lagging weather market prices
performance-bot.js Player/team performance stats vs live market odds

Setup

npm install cp .env.example .env

Never commit your .env file - excluded via .gitignore.

Disclaimer

For educational and research purposes only.

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Automated trading bots for Polymarket: candle, season, weather and performance strategies

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